How to read your results
Every number on the results page describes your past trades under each evaluation's current rules. None of them is a forecast.
Pass rate
For each evaluation, the replay starts a fresh account on every trading day in your history and runs it forward until it passes, fails or runs out of trades. The pass rate is the share of those start days that passed.
Start days near the end of your file can run out of trades before they finish. Those are left out, because the ones that do finish early are mostly quick failures and would drag the rate down unfairly.
Likely range
Start days next to each other share most of their trades, so 800 start days are not 800 independent tries. The likely range is a 95% Wilson interval sized by the number of back-to-back attempts your history holds: buy on day one, pass or fail, buy again the next trading day, and so on. A rate from 6 such attempts gets a wide range; a rate from 200 gets a narrow one.
Results are ranked by the low end of that range, so a 100% from two attempts doesn't outrank a well-measured 60%.
Expected evaluation cost
The price you'd expect to pay to pass once: the first purchase, plus one reset or repurchase for each expected failure, plus any activation fee. Monthly plans are billed for the months the attempts would take. The firm's list price is used unless you enter the price you'd pay; firms run coupons constantly. This is the cost to pass the evaluation, not to receive a payout.
The three verdicts
- Not enough evidence. Under 20 trading days, or no evaluation with at least 5 back-to-back attempts. Export a longer history.
- Don't buy an evaluation on this history yet. The history lost money after fees, or no evaluation's likely range starts at 25% or more. Passes inside a losing record come from short winning streaks.
- Potentially suitable. Up to three evaluations whose rules are verified and current, whose size cap fits your largest position, and whose likely range starts at 25% or more.
Caveats that can appear
- Backtest or simulated account. Backtests fill better than live trading.
- No MAE/MFE. Without each trade's worst and best point, intraday drawdown inside trades isn't replayed and pass rates run high.
- Fees assumed. Your file recorded no fees, so a fee was assumed for your summary.
The full method, with every rule and its test, is on the methods page.